In the last couple of weeks, we have gotten some economic data that is so strong it is almost scary. For example, just yesterday March Leading Economic Indicators were reported up 1.4%, meaning for the last 12 months the LEI are up ~12%! This is the strongest reading in two decades: This implies a much stronger Recovery than either of the two "jobless recoveries" of 1992-3 or 2002-3.
Last week, retail sales were reported up 1.6% including autos due in large part to Toyota's rebates (blue line), and up 0.6% ex-autos (red line). This accelerates the return of the consumer since the bottom a year ago: In the past I have pointed out just how important retail sales adjusted for inflation (a/k/a real retail sales) are for future job growth. With the economy finally adding jobs, this strong showing has major implications for job growth for the rest of this year, and that is what i discuss in this diary.