Strong Job Growth Looks Likely for the Rest of 2010
In the last couple of weeks, we have gotten some economic data that is so strong it is almost scary. For example, just yesterday March Leading Economic Indicators were reported up 1.4%, meaning for...
View ArticleState Tax Revenues probably hit bottom in Q1 2010
Last week the Rockefeller Institute issued its report on state finances [pdf] for the 4th quarter of 2009. Since it covers finances from 4 to 6 months ago, this is very lagging data. What is...
View ArticleForecasters: more Job growth, unemployment; Asia now the engine
One the phrases both Bonddadand I have been using is that in this global recovery, the American consumer is no longer the locomotive, but the caboose. In particular, Asia isn't growing because the US...
View ArticleCongress: Establish a new WPA *NOW*!
"One gets the sense that elites have moved on, that the recovery is here and the [ ] crisis is over" says Atrios reacting to news that [Congressional] lawmakers ... are quietly drawing the line at 99...
View ArticleGDP Report confirms more Job Growth likely
The first quarter advance GDP report was released last Friday. At +3.2%, the report showed an amount of growth that had been expected. As more complete data is available, is is usual there will be...
View ArticleWarren Buffett: "The economy is starting to move"
Warren Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns a variety of "meat and potatoes" companies, from furniture to utility to railroads. Thus Warren Buffet has a unique perch from which to view...
View Article290,000 Jobs Growth in April, 573,000 since December!
The April Nonfarm payrolls were just released, and they were gangbusters!290,000 new jobs were added. Only 66,000 of those were census jobs, meaning that 224,000 non-census jobs were created....
View ArticleHappy Days Aren't Here Again
There is a fundamental point that I have made in nearly all of my economic writings over the last year. Because that point is frequently missed, as it has not been the focal point of my commentary, I...
View ArticleIncome Stagnation: the greatest threat to recovery
The most acute threat to the economic recovery that has begun is the same as the biggest chronic problem for the middle/working classes for the last 45 years: a lack of real wage growth. Only twice in...
View ArticleWill Europe 'Greece' the skids to double-dip recession?
Prof. James Hamilton of Econbrowser notes that: The curious thing is that [stock and commodity] graphs [for the last month] all look the same. Which suggests ... that recent market moves have a common...
View ArticleThe November elections will turn on Jobs, Income - and the price of Oil!
In a recent article in the New Yorker, economist James Surowiecki argued that it doesn’t matter if blame for a poor economy might plausibly be laid on a previous Administration: it’s the party in...
View ArticleThe Housing Bust is nowhere near over
At one level, the global Great Recession has been about the bursting of a tremendous housing bubble that saw a doubling in house prices in only 5 years, and close to 3 million houses being built in...
View ArticleJune jobs report: -225k (+100k ex-Census) 9.5% unemployment
June nonfarm payrolls declined by (- 125,000). Of that, (- 225,000) was laid off census workers, meaning that hiring for the month of June totalled +100,000 workers. This is the sixth straight...
View ArticleAn Open Letter to Congress: *LOAN* the States the money
I certainly hope you all had a wonderful Fourth of July recess, and enjoyed the long summer holiday with your family, friends, and wealthy campaign contributors. If I might, though, I'd like to...
View ArticleObama vs. FDR: The forgotten part of "Relief, Recovery, and Reform"
Back in January 2009, even before President Obama was sworn in, Bonddad and I wrote a four part series on The Great Depression. As the situation continued to deteriorate, in May 2009 we jointly called...
View ArticleHow the Summer economic Slowdown Doomed the Democrats
I took a break during the home stretch of the election season -- discussing the economy by that time would only have been divisive and a distraction from the more important work of the election effort....
View ArticleNY Times interactive graphic lets you fix the deficit
This is a brief diary. Here is a worthwhile diversion for a Sunday: the New York Times has an interactive graphic with a menu of spending cuts and tax increases from which you can select to "fix...
View ArticleAn upbeat economic diary for Thanksgiving
In the last couple of months, momentum has been building in just about every precursor for stronger job growth. Real retail sales, real GDP, pesonal income and spending, and just this morning a...
View ArticleA 2009 Foreboding fulfilled: Obama "is plotting politically feasible ways to...
The below is a piece I wrote in March 2009, reproduced almost in its entirety, entitled "Did Obama lay bare his agenda to David Brooks?" I have considered republishing it for many months, but...
View ArticleBlame President Clinton for Compromise? Remember, it's Speaker Gingrich, not...
There is a diary currently on the Rec list that has a few typos in it.I am returning to make a special guest appearance in order to correct the typos so that it reads accurately.Putting aside the whole...
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