There is a fundamental point that I have made in nearly all of my economic writings over the last year. Because that point is frequently missed, as it has not been the focal point of my commentary, I wanted to place it front and center in this diary.
Both Bonddad and I called the recession before it began. And both of us said it looked like the economy was bottoming a couple of months before it did. I went beyond that and spent a great deal of effort trying to determine when the jobs situation would turn around. Last September I said the bottom would be in November or December +/- one month -- an effort that turned out to be exactly correct. While others were -- wrongly -- mired in bearishness that was contradicted by almost all of the objective data around them, Bonddad and I chronicled the turnaround that has continued to the present.
What neither of us has said is that wage, income, employment or the unemployment rate, are anywhere near "good." Neither on of us is saying that "Happy Days are Here Again." In fact, Happy Days Aren't Here Again.